STATISTICS suggest that the UK may have navigated the first peak of the coronavirus pandemic.
The number of people dying in hospital each day has decreased over recent weeks, and the number of people that are in hospitals across the South East with the virus has tailed off too.
It comes as speculation continues over whether the government will ease lockdown measures, and what that will look like.
Fewer deaths
There are now fewer people dying in hospital than there was at Easter, NHS statistics reveal. At its peak, almost 1,000 people a day were losing their life from Covid-19 at hospitals across the UK.
And an Advertiser analysis of NHS data has suggested that the peak of the virus was felt in the UK on April 13, Easter Monday. Using a seven-day rolling sum to flatten out artificial peaks and troughs and the lower numbers seen around weekends, 5,956 people died in UK hospitals in the seven days before Easter Monday - an average of 851 a day.
This number has steadily decreased over recent days, reaching 4,468 for the seven days up to Monday, April 27, or 638 a day - but these numbers do not include deaths in the community.
This is reflected as well by the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 in the South East. Using the same process of calculating the seven-day rolling sum, the number has been gradually declining since Easter Monday.
At its worst, there were 14,201 people in hospital with the virus over a seven-day period in the South East, which covers Hampshire, Sussex, Kent, Surrey, Berkshire and Oxfordshire. This has since decreased to below 13,000 this week.
These numbers, whilst “encouraging”, are still too high, according to one councillor.
“There are still several hundred deaths per day and we need to reduce that to as low a number as possible,” Cllr Andy Konieczko (Lib Dem, Brighton Hill North) told the Advertiser.
Meanwhile, Cllr Dan Putty (Con, Hatch Warren and Beggarwood), said: “I grieve for all of them. I am lucky to be alive and I feel that we all have to look on the positive side and make the best of life.”
Lockdown debate
“As things stand the level of lockdown feels to me that it is appropriate,” Cllr Konieczko continued. “As the number of new cases and the number of deaths start to decrease it is certainly worth talking about lockdown again.”
Over recent weeks, speculation has been mounting on that line - whether the UK government will continue with current lockdown measures, or follow the lead of other European nations, who are starting to ease off.
In Spain, children are now allowed to go outside for exercise, whilst the French Prime Minister told Parliament on Tuesday how the French lockdown would be eased, should new infections drop to below 3,000 a day by May 11.
Kindergartens and elementary schools will gradually reopen, with middle schools a week later. Shops and markets will also reopen, but bars and restaurants will remain shut.
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Retailers will be able to require customers to wear face masks, whilst the Scottish government said that there could be “some benefit” from wearing face coverings. Nicola Sturgeon stressed that people should not be taking medical masks away from frontline workers who need them, and can make the coverings from scarves or cloth.
Portugal is also preparing to end its state of emergency, whilst in Italy, factories and building sites will be able to reopen and limited family visits will be allowed from next week.
Second peak worries
However, there is still need for caution. In Germany, where lockdown has already been eased, scientists have seen the virus become more infectious - its R0, the number of people each person with Covid-19 infects on average, has risen from 0.7 to 1. When the number is below 1, the virus will eventually die. But when it reaches 1, it will survive, and cause an epidemic if it increases above that.
According to Andover Town Councillor Luigi Gregori (Lib Dem, Harroway), the government must beware of this, and a potential second peak of Covid-19.
“We should all support the government lockdown instructions. They protect us, they protect others including the most vulnerable and they prevent the NHS being swamped.
“There are undoubtedly downsides including the economic and psychological hardships, as well as the medical issues caused by our concentration on Covid-19.
“Lifting restrictions will therefore be a fine balance between public health and a myriad of other considerations. Until we have more information, I suspect the government will be cautious. Without a vaccine, or an effective treatment, we remain at the pandemic’s mercy.”
This view is concurred by Cllr Putty, who said “we should be still looking at the medical advice for the time being”.
“We don’t want to get into a situation where all his hard work is going to be wasted,” he continued.
Whilst other countries are easing lockdown measures, the UK has, thus far, not showed any sign of movement. However, countries such as Italy and Spain are up to three weeks ahead of the UK’s trajectory, and have had much tighter restrictions in weeks gone by. For example, in the UK, people have been allowed to exercise outside, which has not been allowed in those countries.
On his return to work on Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised more detail on how lockdown will be eased in the coming days. He’ll be under intense scrutiny, including from his own party, to start to ease the measures and re-start the UK’s frozen economy, whilst medical experts will insist against moving too fast. But he must thread the eye of the proverbial needle to perform economic CPR whilst ensuring we don’t experience a second peak.
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